This is the 3D representation of the highly inclined orbit of the asteroid. It approaches the Earth's orbit at both nodes.
Note: All coming results of this section were exclusively obtained
using our software.
1. Geometry of orbit
This is the 3D representation of the highly inclined orbit of the asteroid. It approaches the Earth's orbit at both nodes.
SolSyIn source:
remove 1999an10
sysmaker moon 0 r _ 1999an10
sysmaker 1999an10 1 5 1999an10 y temp f 5 m 3
_ 1999an10
integrat 1999an10
tabmaker 1999an10 n 3-11 _ t 2452050.5-2453050.5
_
plotter 1999an10 xyz
2. Minimum distances to Earth
This plot shows the distance variation to Earth of the asteroid during this century. It makes three major close approaches, but the most notable one occurs on 7th of August 2027, at 0.00261 AU, a little bit outside of the Moon's orbit (as it can be verified with the program 'checker.exe').
SolSyIn source (continued):
tabmaker 1999an10 d n 11-11 b 3 _ _
plotter 1999an10 dist_lg
3. Minimal orbital intersection distance (MOID)
MOID is the minimal distance between the osculating orbit of the asteroid and that of the Earth. It measures how close these orbits are in space. At least for the next 5 centuries they stay very close one to another, allowing many close encounters to take place.[This parameter is computed in the hypothesis that the Earth's orbit is circular and its value is slightly altered by this assumption.)
SolSyIn source:
remove 1999an10
sysmaker sol-9 1 5 1999an10 y temp i 182625 f
3 _ 1999an10
integrat 1999an10
tabmaker 1999an10 d n 10-10 b 3 _ f 5 _
plotter 1999an10 moid
4. Chaotic behaviour
This is the semimajor axis variation of the asteroid, showing a very chaotic behaviour dominated by jumps at close encounters. So, the question is: "For how long can we predict in a deterministic way the asteroid's motion?"
SolSyIn source (continued):
tabmaker 1999an10 k n 10-10 _ f 5 _
plotter 1999an10 a
5. Orbital uncertainty propagation and the Lyapunov time
This is the mean longitude's dispersion (degrees) in time of 100 virtual asteroids filling the initial uncertainty region of 1999AN10. From this plot we can empirically compute a Lyapunov time of about 20-30 years. So, a deterministic evolution can be traced only up to one or two hundreds years from now.
SolSyIn source:
remove 1999an10
sysmaker moon 0 r _ 1999an10
sysmaker 1999an10 2 2 1999an10 y temp s 100 q
2 _ i 109575 f 10 m 3 _ 1999an10
integrat 1999an10
tabmaker 1999an10 k n 11-111 _ m _
plotter 1999an10 m_lg
6. Target plane analysis of an impact
Previous 100 simulated virtual asteroids projected onto the target plane centered on Earth at three close approaches during this century. There are no impactors found in these results. Future orbital improvements will probably extend the period of time in which such impact analysis can be done.
SolSyIn source (continued):
tabmaker 1999an10 t n 11-111 b 3 _ t 2452050.5-2488575.5
_
plotter 1999an10 targ